How they ran at Ayr

LATHOM really caught my eye with his attitude when chasing home Spirit Of Wedza* at Hamilton. He has a turn of pace at the business end and used it to great effect yesterday at Ayr, putting 2 lengths between himself and the rest. He will go up between 6 and 8lbs for that, but I can’t see that is necessarily going to stop him winning as he does no more than he has to. He can certainly step up to Class 3 on the basis of yesterday’s effort.

* Can’t find any news on Spirit Of Wedza who hasn’t appeared since. As an aside I worked through that one’s trainer Julie Camacho’s record and you could pretty much cover any of her runners over 5 and 6 furlongs in handicaps and turn a profit.

HAROME was swamped in the final furlong having shared the pace for the first four furlongs. Looking at his record he’s never won in a field of more than 9 runners and I think he needs to dominate a small field. Add to that his winning has been done almost exclusively on quick ground then we have the best circumstances identified. Roger Fell continues to churn out the winners and Club Wexford won the opening Class 2 mile handicap taking a significant step up in grade. Right now I’m keeping a close eye on anything Roger Fell runs.

CHARLES KINGSLEY ran a respectable race up in class finishing fifth. I get the impression he’s better on a turning track than on the more galloping type like Ayr. He seems taken off his feet as the pace increases down long straights.

Nothing to add to the list this time, though I will have another look at yesterday’s Ayr races just in case I’ve missed something. There are a couple of decent races at Pontefract that I will keep an eye on. Perth jump report to follow.

Flat Runners at Ayr - June 22nd

CHARLES KINGSLEY steps up in class to contest a 1m 5f Class 2 Handicap at Ayr today. He has gone up significantly in the handicap, but while big on numbers this isn’t a particularly strong Class 2 event and Mark Johnston’s challenger is upwardly mobile.

HAROME goes for the 3.45 a Class 4 five furlong handicap and can win this if he reproduces his Epsom effort which saw him work through the field to sixth after a slow start. LATHOM goes in the same race, remains well capable in this grade off his current mark and a reverse Exacta would pay nicely if things fall into place.

Unfortunately I can’t get to Ayr today, but will be keeping an eye on the east coast action while at the jumps meeting at Perth.

MOON OF LOVE was aimed high at Ascot yesterday but it was always going to be a tough task and she was out the back in the Albany. She will be competitive when aimed lower.

Flat Horses 2019 Update

Good start for the list with CHARLES KINGSLEY hosing up at 2/1 at Hamilton. I’ll keep him on the list as Mark Johnston generally gets his horses going in an upwardly mobile fashion. Lathom was entered in the Dash at Epsom off his old mark of 68, but had diddly-squat chance of getting in the line up! Long term I note Rare Groove is in the Northumberland Plate which suggests Jedd O’Keeffe will look to step him up in trip.

Mark Johnston has entered CHARLES KINGSLEY twice next week and interesting off top weight at Brighton on Monday, a fair looking event by Brighton standards, though there is a fairly lightly campaigned Mark Prescott improver in the entries in Final Rock, though that one ran third of 4 at Lingfield yesterday evening.

My thread on The Racing Forum led to a discussion on the patterns of trainer Roger Fell who favours racing his horses often but not overdoing things on the gallops. Though not necessarily one to follow Fell's Club Wexford has recorded 7 wins in his career and they have all been off a break of 15 days or less. Basically seems to lose his peak condition if he’s off the track for much more than 2 weeks, although I do note he’s gone close a couple of times on seasonal debut. Difficult to tie it down to the trainer as he’s only been with Roger Fell since early 2018, but Fell has prised 4 wins out of him at a good deal better percentage win than previously in the horse’s career. In that time he’s gone from a mark 76 to yesterday’s 79 which suggests good management by his trainer.

Delving a little deeper, a quick check of Fell’s record suggests this is a case of trainer pattern meets horse pattern. You would have made 18% profit since 2015 blind backing Roger Fell’s horses turning out within 2 weeks of their last run, and even better just sticking to handicaps. On this basis I marked up Mulligatawny to a work colleague for a visit to Musselburgh yesterday, and I hope she backed it since the horse obliged at 4/1. 

Staying on the Roger Fell theme, keep an eye out for HAROME appearing in the next couple of works. Slowly away in the Epsom Dash, this one came from right at the back halfway to finish sixth. Certainly one that could follow the Fell ‘quick return’ pattern and should pick up a decent five furlong sprint somewhere along the line, despite current ‘unspiring’ form figures.

Another northern horse to note from this was EEH BAH GUM, Tim Easterby’s charge picking his way through late on to finish fifth. Easterby should be able place this one to advantage before long.

Summary of list horses at this point

CHARLES KINGSLEY - Mark Johnston (entered Brighton tomorrow June 3rd)
RARE GROOVE - Jedd O'Keeffe
LATHOM - Paul Midgley (entered over 5f at Haydock - Thursday June 6th)
MR DIAMOND - Richard Fahey
HAROME - Roger Fell (added confidence if running off a break of 2 weeks or less)
EEH BAH GUM - Tim Easterby