Flat Horses 2019 Update

Good start for the list with CHARLES KINGSLEY hosing up at 2/1 at Hamilton. I’ll keep him on the list as Mark Johnston generally gets his horses going in an upwardly mobile fashion. Lathom was entered in the Dash at Epsom off his old mark of 68, but had diddly-squat chance of getting in the line up! Long term I note Rare Groove is in the Northumberland Plate which suggests Jedd O’Keeffe will look to step him up in trip.

Mark Johnston has entered CHARLES KINGSLEY twice next week and interesting off top weight at Brighton on Monday, a fair looking event by Brighton standards, though there is a fairly lightly campaigned Mark Prescott improver in the entries in Final Rock, though that one ran third of 4 at Lingfield yesterday evening.

My thread on The Racing Forum led to a discussion on the patterns of trainer Roger Fell who favours racing his horses often but not overdoing things on the gallops. Though not necessarily one to follow Fell's Club Wexford has recorded 7 wins in his career and they have all been off a break of 15 days or less. Basically seems to lose his peak condition if he’s off the track for much more than 2 weeks, although I do note he’s gone close a couple of times on seasonal debut. Difficult to tie it down to the trainer as he’s only been with Roger Fell since early 2018, but Fell has prised 4 wins out of him at a good deal better percentage win than previously in the horse’s career. In that time he’s gone from a mark 76 to yesterday’s 79 which suggests good management by his trainer.

Delving a little deeper, a quick check of Fell’s record suggests this is a case of trainer pattern meets horse pattern. You would have made 18% profit since 2015 blind backing Roger Fell’s horses turning out within 2 weeks of their last run, and even better just sticking to handicaps. On this basis I marked up Mulligatawny to a work colleague for a visit to Musselburgh yesterday, and I hope she backed it since the horse obliged at 4/1. 

Staying on the Roger Fell theme, keep an eye out for HAROME appearing in the next couple of works. Slowly away in the Epsom Dash, this one came from right at the back halfway to finish sixth. Certainly one that could follow the Fell ‘quick return’ pattern and should pick up a decent five furlong sprint somewhere along the line, despite current ‘unspiring’ form figures.

Another northern horse to note from this was EEH BAH GUM, Tim Easterby’s charge picking his way through late on to finish fifth. Easterby should be able place this one to advantage before long.

Summary of list horses at this point

CHARLES KINGSLEY - Mark Johnston (entered Brighton tomorrow June 3rd)
RARE GROOVE - Jedd O'Keeffe
LATHOM - Paul Midgley (entered over 5f at Haydock - Thursday June 6th)
MR DIAMOND - Richard Fahey
HAROME - Roger Fell (added confidence if running off a break of 2 weeks or less)
EEH BAH GUM - Tim Easterby